DRAM Prices Set to Surge 13-18% in Q2 2024, TrendForce Forecasts Amid AI Chip Demand

According to market research company, TrendForce, Q2 of 2024 will see a 13-18% increase in DRAM prices. A while back, TrendForce also said that there will only be a slight increase in DRAM prices by 3-8% in Q2 of 2024. But after seeing a 20% increase in DRAM prices in Q1 of 2024, they estimated the prices again. The prices of NAND flash memory were also predicted by the same company but there was only a slight difference in the predicted and actual price. The company had predicted an increase of NAND prices by 13-18% in Q1 of 2024, but they were increased by 15-20%.

There are some of the reasons why there is an increase in prices but the biggest reason is that many companies are now putting their resources to use HBM in AI chips. The thing worth noting here is that DRAM is a lot cheaper than HBM and five times more costly than DDR5. There are many crowding out effects on HBM capacity so many marketers have increased the prices of their stock in Q2 because HBM is expected to get a shortage.

TrendForce also reported that the fastest type of GBM memory which is Samsung’s HBM3e is only going to use 60% of their maximum capacity by 2024 which will constrict DDR5 suppliers. HBM3e production is likely to be increased in Q3 of 2024.

HBM used in AI chips has been sold out for 2024 as well as the majority of 2025 as reported by Nvidia supplier SK Hynix. Micron also reported similar supply constraints for their HBM products in 2024 and 2025. The annual demand of HBM is going to reach 200% in 2024 and 400% in 2025 if this trend continues.

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