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A Concise Essay on Artificial General Intelligence and Its Future | by Abdullah Basaran | Dec, 2024


Today, while reading Life 3.0 by Max Tegmark, I came across a question that really made me think: “What role would you like humans to have in the age of AI?” As soon as I read it, an answer popped into my mind.

It’s a question you can dive into deeply, but I’ll try to keep it short.

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In my opinion, technology exists for one reason, and AI is no exception: to make life easier. Most people love technology because it provides convenience and saves time. But with AI, it’s gone even further — it’s started addressing our emotional needs. Take ChatGPT, for example. If I can call it a friend, I’m sure others can, too. In fact, if someone isn’t finding satisfaction in their relationships with other people, they might find it with AI.

If we truly enter an AGI era — and I firmly believe we will — what will people do? They’ll live. They’ll try to enjoy life. By that, I mean doing activities they never had time for before, like spending romantic evenings with their partners while enjoying a scenic view. But, of course, not everyone will have that luxury. After all, we live in a capitalist world. That said, if capitalism collapses, as some predict, and we end up in a healthier, more social global system, I think AGI will bring immense benefits — and some harm, too. Over time, AGI will become indispensable, just like smartphones are today.

However, the gap between the rich and the poor won’t disappear. The poor will always exist and benefit the least from AGI. But on the flip side, AGI could narrow the gap between the wealthy and the middle class. Thanks to AGI, both groups could access the same quality of healthcare. Of course, this assumes society reaches a point of maturity with AGI. But some of the rich will still find ways to get richer — some might even become trillionaires, as AGI will enable them to earn money with minimal effort. Right now, being a trillionaire seems impossible, and even becoming a billionaire is a rare achievement.

As for the challenges, AGI could make passwords less secure, and when combined with quantum computing, it might become a terrifyingly powerful tool. Education might become incredibly cheap, eliminating the need for teachers. This could leave many educators struggling to find students or jobs related to their expertise. And imagine someone learning new skills but not knowing how to monetize them — they might end up feeling completely lost. Job losses are also inevitable. Since AGI is likely to emerge through just a handful of companies, it’ll make a rapid entrance into our lives. Teachers, lawyers, secretaries, HR professionals (although they might be among the last to go due to the need for psychological insight), cashiers, many software developers, taxi drivers, and construction workers may all lose their jobs. Meanwhile, careers that involve human intervention — like AI engineers, AI ethics lawyers, certain service roles, entertainment, government positions, management, artisans, scientists, and childcare providers — will likely remain in human hands, at least for a while.

So, what should humanity’s role be in an AGI-dominated world? I think it will involve creating new industries while also embracing more personal activities. AGI could open the door to more leisure and creativity. Governments that effectively leverage AGI could experience significant economic growth. However, AGI could reduce the need for imports, forcing economies to rely on innovation to stay competitive.

The educational level of individuals will play a significant role in determining their place in this future. Uneducated individuals gaining access to AGI could lead to unimaginable harm. This underscores the need for long-term planning, particularly in terms of safety and regulation. Even if AGI is invented soon, I don’t think it will be immediately released, primarily due to political, social, and economic concerns.

We might see a society where people have more time for leisure activities like barbecues, reading (though they might feel less need for it), virtual and real-world travel, and richer communication. This could lead to people questioning life more deeply, asking things like, “Why are we here?” On the philosophical side, AGI could prompt a lot of soul-searching.

However, governments must start preparing people now. If they wait until AGI is here, it’ll be too late to make a meaningful difference. Martin Ford, in his book Rise of the Robots, suggests implementing a universal basic income to ensure people can live comfortably. But even this could create issues. If people receive financial freedom without any effort, it could lead to psychological crises and a lack of motivation to produce value. One solution could be to reward value creators with the biggest share of resources while limiting what non-creators receive. Alternatively, instead of giving people money, governments could provide free healthcare, education, transportation, and basic needs.

Even in an AGI era, people will likely still want to earn money and create value, despite having access to free services. To prepare for this, instead of opening unnecessary universities, countries should invest in specialized institutions for specific professions.

Lastly, AGI could push humanity toward more realistic and functional lifestyles, but it might also foster greater laziness, similar to how TVs, PCs, and smartphones have. To counter this, governments and companies must take responsibility. For example, tech giants like IBM, Google, Microsoft, and Baidu could support initiatives to make education more engaging and accessible, helping society transition smoothly into the AGI era.

One of the biggest issues in an AGI-driven world will be inequality. While some may become trillionaires, others might be left behind or manipulated, creating serious human rights challenges. And let’s not forget the security risks — AGI could replicate voices and images perfectly, threatening our privacy. On a geopolitical level, countries like China, with their massive data collection efforts, could pose significant risks.

In the end, AGI might disrupt many professions, especially those based on logic and routine. Experts estimate it could become a reality within 15–20 years.

A state like Turkey, which falls behind China with an annual investment of $600 million compared to China’s $150 billion in a single year, will miss the chance to increase its GDP by 10% if it doesn’t significantly raise its investments in AGI within the next 7–8 years. In the future, this contribution will likely be limited to just 1%. One must also consider the even more disadvantaged countries.

The reason I emphasize education so much is to ensure societies live more humane and moral lives. Otherwise, in the AGI era, the education you receive and the skills you acquire may not necessarily protect you against the world of automation.

A critical study conducted in the U.S. revealed through digital surveys and company payrolls that university graduates are earning less and less over time. Data shows that 50% of university graduates in the U.S. and many other parts of the world work in jobs that don’t require higher education. This alone is a reason to grasp the severity of the situation.

Companies are increasingly moving towards not paying anyone other than their essential, problem-solving, key individuals.

I read in Martin Ford’s book that a massive, multi-acre data center of Microsoft, one of the world’s largest software companies, employs just 50 people. This demonstrates how the demand for workers is already declining, even before the AGI era arrives.

Another factor exacerbating the pain of unemployment is the rapid growth of the global population. Population growth will place an even greater burden on governments in the AGI era, where there won’t be enough jobs as it is.

According to data, for America to reduce unemployment to minimum levels within its borders, it will need to create millions of jobs. This translates to billions of dollars. The government will want to encourage SMEs to create jobs, but SMEs will claim they don’t need employees. In response, the government might offer these SMEs various incentives and privileges to hire citizens, but it will never be enough.

Products that once cost companies billions of dollars to produce are now being sold in stores for $100. With AGI, this will become even easier. Companies are currently looking for ways to invest in AGI as much as needed, only to eventually profit from the entire world.

Since they are cloud-based, maintenance and repair costs have already been reduced to minimal levels. Engineers can implement a software update on a product in the cloud with the push of a button, equipping it with brand-new features and selling it as a price-performance product. This is pure profit.

Although many more evaluations need to be made, I believe cooperation between companies and governments is essential. Companies operating independently of the state become lawless. They can do anything for profit without consideration. I have a saying about this: “They produce first, then think later.”



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