Uncategorized

Predicting preterm birth using explainable machine learning in a prospective cohort of nulliparous and multiparous pregnant women



. 2023 Dec 27;18(12):e0293925.


doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0293925.


eCollection 2023.

Affiliations

Free PMC article

Item in Clipboard

Wasif Khan et al.


PLoS One.


.

Free PMC article

Abstract

Preterm birth (PTB) presents a complex challenge in pregnancy, often leading to significant perinatal and long-term morbidities. “While machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown promise in PTB prediction, the lack of interpretability in existing models hinders their clinical utility. This study aimed to predict PTB in a pregnant population using ML models, identify the key risk factors associated with PTB through the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm, and provide comprehensive explanations for these predictions to assist clinicians in providing appropriate care. This study analyzed a dataset of 3509 pregnant women in the United Arab Emirates and selected 35 risk factors associated with PTB based on the existing medical and artificial intelligence literature. Six ML algorithms were tested, wherein the XGBoost model exhibited the best performance, with an area under the operator receiving curves of 0.735 and 0.723 for parous and nulliparous women, respectively. The SHAP feature attribution framework was employed to identify the most significant risk factors linked to PTB. Additionally, individual patient analysis was performed using the SHAP and the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation algorithms (LIME). The overall incidence of PTB was 11.23% (11 and 12.1% in parous and nulliparous women, respectively). The main risk factors associated with PTB in parous women are previous PTB, previous cesarean section, preeclampsia during pregnancy, and maternal age. In nulliparous women, body mass index at delivery, maternal age, and the presence of amniotic infection were the most relevant risk factors. The trained ML prediction model developed in this study holds promise as a valuable screening tool for predicting PTB within this specific population. Furthermore, SHAP and LIME analyses can assist clinicians in understanding the individualized impact of each risk factor on their patients and provide appropriate care to reduce morbidity and mortality related to PTB.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures


Fig 1



Fig 1. Proposed methodology for predicting PTB using machine learning models.


Fig 2



Fig 2

A. ROC curve for PTB prediction in parous women (n = 2708). B. SHAP-based feature importance plot for parous women. C. Summary plot for top 10 SHAP-based risk factors in parous women. Each dot in the graph indicates a patient and her relative risk towards PTB prediction. Several patients at the same point create a dense region. The colors indicate the feature values on the right side (vertically): blue indicates lower values while red indicates higher values of a risk factor. For instance, for previous cesarean section (CS) delivery, when the number of CS deliveries increases then the risk of PTB delivery increases while patients with lower (or no CS) deliveries are at a lower risk of PTB. We also observed negative interactions, such as patients with higher BMI, are at a relatively lower risk of PTB, whereas those with lower BMI are at a higher risk.


Fig 3



Fig 3. Individual patient set analysis for parous women using SHAP.

The feature values in red indicate the risk factors increasing the chances of PTB, whereas those in blue indicate factors reducing the chances of PTB. The size of the risk factor indicates its degree of influence on that specific patient. Patient (a) is at lower risk, patient (b) median risk, and patient (c) higher risk of PTB.


Fig 4



Fig 4

A. ROC curve for PTB prediction in the nulliparous women (n = 810). B. SHAP-based feature importance plot for nulliparous women. C. Summary plot for top 10 SHAP-based risk factors in nulliparous women.


Fig 5



Fig 5. Individual patient set analysis for nulliparous women using SHAP.

Patient (a) is at lower risk, patient (b) median risk, and patient (c) higher risk of PTB.

References

    1. Liu L, Oza S, Hogan D, Chu Y, Perin J, Zhu J, et al.. Global, regional, and national causes of under-5 mortality in 2000–15: an updated systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals. Lancet. 2016. Dec 17;388(10063):3027–35. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31593-8



      DOI



      PMC



      PubMed

    1. Blencowe H, Cousens S, Chou D, Oestergaard M, Say L, Moller AB, et al.. Born too soon: the global epidemiology of 15 million preterm births. Reprod Health. 2013;10 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S2. doi: 10.1186/1742-4755-10-S1-S2



      DOI



      PMC



      PubMed

    1. Taha Z, Hassan AA, Wikkeling-Scott L, Papandreou D. Factors Associated with Preterm Birth and Low Birth Weight in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates. International journal of environmental research and public health [Internet]. 2020. Feb 2 [cited 2022 May 24];17(4). Available from: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32098043/ doi: 10.3390/ijerph17041382



      DOI



      PMC



      PubMed

    1. Lipton ZC. The Mythos of Model Interpretability [Internet]. arXiv; 2017 [cited 2022 May 27]. http://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03490

    1. Lauritsen SM, Kristensen M, Olsen MV, Larsen MS, Lauritsen KM, Jørgensen MJ, et al.. Explainable artificial intelligence model to predict acute critical illness from electronic health records. Nat Commun. 2020. Jul 31;11(1):3852. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-17431-x



      DOI



      PMC



      PubMed

MeSH terms

Grants and funding

This work was supported by a grant from Zayed Center for Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University (31R239).

LinkOut – more resources

  • Full Text Sources

  • Research Materials



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *