Gartner’s soothsayers say it may never happen

Soothsayers and fortune tellers working for Gartner have consulted the entrails of a particularly fat ram and concluded that artificial general intelligence is at least a decade away if it ever happens.

After chewing laurel leaf and writing its report, Gartner wondered if the whole concept was worth even researching.

AGI has become a contentious issue in recent years, with developers of large language models (LLMs) like OpenAI making audacious claims about their progress towards human-like intelligence.

Experts in cognitive science have derided these assertions, arguing that AGI is poorly understood and that the LLM approach is fundamentally flawed.

In its Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2024, Gartner distils “key insights” from over 2,000 technologies, producing a concise list of “must-know” emerging technologies expected to deliver benefits within the next two to ten years.

The consultancy notes that Generative AI (GenAI) – the subject of immense industry hype and substantial investment – is poised to enter the notorious “trough of disillusionment.”

Arun Chandrasekaran, Gartner’s distinguished VP analyst, said: “The expectations and hype around GenAI are enormously high. It’s not that the technology itself is deficient, but it cannot keep pace with the lofty expectations set by the market over the past 12 to 18 months.”

Chandrasekaran believes GenAI will have a significant long-term impact on investment.

“I still firmly believe that the long-term impact of GenAI will be substantial, but we may have overestimated its near-term capabilities,” he said.